The future trajectory of Pakistan’s complex manoeuvres in Afghanistan is moving towards building structured co-located terror units with active Pakistan military support. It is now a question of timing as to when some of these units will be directed towards India and Jammu and Kashmir.
The role of Hamdullah Mohib (National Security Advisor, Afghanistan) in the collapse of the Afghan government and enabling Taliban to takeover the country will certainly be discussed in the days ahead. According to some bureaucrats who worked in the Arg, one of the reasons why the trained and well-equipped Afghan army collapsed without a fight was because Mohib was contracting surrender deals with the Taliban to help it advance.
By noon on August 15th the Afghan Government had collapsed. There was complete disarray amongst the rank and file of the Afghan defense and security forces. Vice-President Saleh and Defense Minister Bismillah Khan were already on their way to Panjshir Valley. Later Amrullah described the collapse as a “shameful surrender to Pakistan.”
Afghanistan’s Defence Minister, Bismillah Khan Mohammedi, who is now in Panjshir Valley heading the Afghan resistance forces said angrily, referring to Ghani and his team of advisors, "they tied our hands behind our backs and sold the homeland, damn the rich man and his gang." Between August 6th and August 14th Mohib strategically enabled the Taliban to rapidly advance by withdrawing the ANDSF and preventing them from actively engaging the Taliban.
The pattern is so agonizingly similar - another Maoist attack; high death count; muscular political pledges to respond at an appropriate time; civilian outrage and shock flooding all forms of media. Yes, the pattern is now beyond fatigue levels - another cycle of condemnation; another cycle of some enquiry on what went wrong; another announcement of new SOPs.
By occupying areas in Pangong Tso lake region till Finger 4, China’s PLA has effectively taken over India’s buffer zone territory and reduced its claim line by 8 km from what it was in 1960. There is another matter that is hardly occupying any media attention. The entire focus is on Chinese occupying the Indian side of LAC on the ground, but what about the mountain tops.
Irrespective of the intense competition amongst China’s powerful BBAT companies – ByteDance, Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent – the alarm in the strategic affairs circles in New Delhi is over the common intent of these Chinese firms – winning over the hearts and minds of India’s Gen Z and aligning them to Chinese values and foreign policy goals.
The Chinese investment strategy in India over the last five years has focused on grabbing significant chunks of technology enabled start-ups. Chinese venture funds are often routed to India through its entities located in Singapore, Hong Kong, Mauritius and so on.