Interesting developments are taking place in South Asia post the Osama bin Laden killing with Asif Ali Zardari visiting Russia, the first visit by a Pakistan President in over 30 years.
Zardari, in an interview, invited Russia to use the Pakistani territory to gain access to ‘southern seas’ and said such a move would be mutually beneficial for both Russia and Pakistan in terms of economic prosperity.
The relations between erstwhile Soviet Union and Pakistan have been frosty given Pakistan’s lead role in supporting Afghan rebel forces fighting Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The relations began to improve post 2007 with the visit of then Russian PM Mikhail Fradkov to Pakistan, first by a Russian PM in 38 years.
The relations have also improved in the last few years partly as a reaction to the growing Indo-US ties. Besides, Russia also considers Pakistan as a lucrative market for exporting arms and ammunition.
Apart from signing trade agreements and talk of cooperation between the two countries in the energy sector, the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev endorsed Pakistan’s claim to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The SCO is a regional security organization founded in 2001 by leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. States like Iran, India, Pakistan and Mogolia have an observer status in the organization.
“The time has come to acknowledge the importance of our countries for each other and the importance of regional cooperation and to also ramp up economic and political joint work,” Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari was quoted as saying by AFP.
Moscow’s move to develop relations with Pakistan stems from its insecurity with regard to the unpredictable situation in Afghanistan.
One of the reasons for Russia to court Pakistan is that “Moscow would like to get as close as possible to the inner track of the ongoing US-Pakistan discourse regarding the end game in Afghanistan.
Russia will factor in that Bin Laden’s killing will hasten the Afghan peace process and give US President Barack Obama a somewhat free hand with regard to the drawdown of US troops in Afghanistan commencing in July,” Former Indian Diplomat M K Bhadrakumar writes in his Asia Times article. Russia is already suffering from the inflow of narcotics into its country from Afghanistan. News reports in last few days have suggested that Russia is pressing Tajikistan to allow its troops to guard the border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. More importantly, Russia is also worried about rising Islamic radicalism in Afghanistan (too some extent in Pakistan too) having an effect on Central Asian states should the US decide to withdraw its forces from the region in 2014.
According to M K Bhadrakumar, “Twenty years after the fall of the Soviet Union, Moscow sees Central Asia as part of its sphere of interest and worries that an upsurge in Islamist violence or heroin trafficking could upset the predominantly Muslim, oil-and gas-producing region.”
The future role of the US and NATO forces in Central Asia is also of concern for Russia. Russian analysts believe the US will continue to find ways to expand its (along with NATO) influence in Central Asia.
Russia and Afghanistan’s neighbors do not want a permanent US military presence in Afghanistan. Countries like China, India, and Iran have all supported a regional solution, meaning enhanced role for the SCO in Afghanistan. As a part of that, efforts are also on to induct India and Pakistan in the SCO as permanent members.
Russia, along with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan has also institutionalized a quadripartite forum to counter the spread of drug trade, terrorism and instability via Central Asia towards Russian borders.
The Pakistani President’s Moscow trip comes at a time of rocky US-Pakistan relations post Operation Geronimo. Zardari’s trip is also important as it comes after strategic China-Pakistan talks in late April. The view in Islamabad is that relations Pakistan needs regional allies at this critical juncture and relations with Russia could help in “dampening Indian hostility”. “Pakistan has an important place in Russia’s foreign policy being one of the major influential Muslim countries.
Pakistan’s foreign policy has of late focused on developing closer relations with countries in Central Asia. The president’s visit is part of the continuing effort that began with Prime Minister Gilani’s visit in 2008. Pakistan should institute a high-level dialogue on strategic and political issues and build up a mechanism to focus on economic cooperation through increased market access to Pakistan and connectivity in the trade and energy sectors……Friendship with the Soviet Union is now a strategic imperative and must be achieved and sustained,” former Pakistani diplomat Tayyab Siddiqui wrote in his column in The News International.
Pakistan at the moment is an important state for Russia to engage if they want to play a more active role in Central and South Asia. For Pakistan, given its rocky ties with the US post Abbottabad operation, it is imperative to have a long-term strategic friendship with Russia.
(This article first appeared on the website of Centre for Land Warfare Studies on May 17, 2011)